KILLING OF
ISMAIL HANIYEH – HAMAS LEADER
‘KILLING MANY
BIRDS WITH ONE STONE’
- Dr. (Col.) Rakesh Kumar Shrivastav, Registrar, PDEU
Ismail
Haniyeh, topmost leader of Hamas was assassinated on Wednesday 31 July 2024 at
a Guest House in Iran at 2 AM. He was at Iran, one of the closest allies of
Hamas, for the swearing in ceremony of Iranian President Mr. Masoud Pezeshkian.
Haniyeh was the unofficial ruler of Gaza and possibly dictated Hamas actions both
military and diplomatic, during the conflict. His death is poised to have far reaching
consequences not only for West Asia but for the complete world. We can safely
say that the action is much more than meets the eye or ‘killing many birds with
one stone’. The assassination marks a significant development in the ongoing
Israel, Hamas conflict, Iran’s own pride including role of Iran in Hamas and Hezbollah
actions, Houthi militants actions in Red Sea, neighbours of Israel i.e. Syria,
Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt and finally the salient /not so silent players in the
game i.e. USA, Russia and China.
Ismail
Haniyeh’s Role in Hamas.
He was a prominent figure of Hamas for quarter
of a century. Haniyeh from a humble background, rose through ranks, eventually
becoming PM of Palestinian Authority in 2006. He assumed the leadership of Gaza
after the violent split between two main bodies of Palestine i.e. Fatah and
Hamas in 2007. He was responsible for negotiating complex alliances in favour
of Hamas and was staunch enemy of Israel. He ensured strong Hamas military
capabilities in order to take on Israel. He was the Chief Negotiator of Hamas
in Israel – Hamas peace talks in both Qatari brokered peace talks and US led
peace talks. According to US, the peace which was days away will get derailed
with his killing.
Immediate
Reaction and Escalation
The
killing may affect Israel – Hamas war in both ways i.e. escalation or peace
process. It may escalate the situation in Gaza with increased attacks from Gaza
to Israel or alternatively due to the power vacuum in Hamas leadership, may
lead to Hamas accepting release of hostages and peace talks on terms of Israel.
Lot of this will also depend on the support from many of the Hamas allies
including retaliatory actions by Iran.
Recent
Activities in West Asia as Related to Israel – Hamas War
After
the Heinous Hamas attack on Israel on 17 Oct. 2023 and commencement of Israel
Hamas war, over 10 months and counting, the end does not seem to be in sight.
Some of the recent activities in last few days are:
- Israel
attack on diplomatic facility in Damascus that killed seven Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on 01 Apr 2024 and further Iran guarded
retaliation on Israel with more than 300 missiles and drones on 13 April. Further
Israel attack on Iran’s S-300 Long Range Air Defence System at Irfahan as a
demonstrative retaliation.
- 19
May 2024, the Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, died in a Helicopter crash.
Though no foul play has been indicated but it made Iran lose focus of support
to Hamas.
- 13
July Hamas military Chief Mohammed Dief was killed in Gaza Airstrike which was
revealed and confirmed only couple of days back.
- Houthi’s
missile attack at Israel and Israel air strike at Hodeidah Port at Yemen.
Israel hit at a range of 3000 kms.
- Brig
rank commander of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran was killed
at Damascus in Syria.
- Hezbollah
Commander Fuad Shukr was killed by Israel airstrike at Beirut, Lebanon’s capital
in retaliation to a rocket attack in Israel Golan heights killing 12 people, mostly
children.
- Finally
the latest death of Haniyeh at Tehran.
Options
with Iran
The
killing of Haniyeh has happened on Iran soil that too when the Hamas leader was
there to attend the official function as a guest and staying in the most
secured zone guarded by IRGC troops. Latest reports suggests that the bomb was
planted in the guest house almost two months prior and was detonated remotely
at 2 AM. Mr. Ayatollah Khamenei was informed in the night. At 7 AM he summoned
the members of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and issued an order to
strike Israel in retaliation.
This
is the second or third time in last few months that Iran has been challenged by
Israel directly. Full-fledged offensive on Israel by Iran is not a possibility
however targeting Israel by missiles/drones or rockets from Lebanon, Syria or
Gaza is an option. Israel, with support of US, must be prepared for both
offensive and defensive action in this kind of scenario. Israel has celebrated
the killing but have not yet taken the responsibility for the killing. A very
wise move by Israel as no Airspace was violated or no direct involvement of
Israel can be pointed out.
Role of USA in this
Situation.
US
Secretary of State has said that ‘USA was not aware of or involved in this
matter’. He further said that there is no point in speculating on the outcome
as there are many uncertainties. However, it is well known fact that USA has
full support to Israel in case the situation escalates. USA is in no mood to
let go its hold on West Asia and let China and Russia have a greater say in the
Region.
China and Russia
In
last few years China and Russia have become very close to Iran. In fact the
West is talking about the un-holy nexus between Russia, China, Iran and North
Korea. China was a major factor in fostering reconciliation among different
Palestinian factions. The recent Beijing Declaration has raised hopes in
addressing long pending Middle East issues. The uncertainty arising due to
death of two top leaders of Hamas may derail the peace process and can put
China’s efforts in vein. Russia is a major supplier of arms to Iran and in case
of escalation it will have a role to play or can also help in de-escalation of
the situation arising out of the crisis.
Impact on Israeli-Palestinian Relations
The assassination of two top Hamas leaders like
Haniyeh and Dief is likely to have profound implications for
Israeli-Palestinian relations. Peace talks, which is stalled for years, could
become even more challenging to revive. Trust between the two sides, might
further erode. The Palestinian Authority, led by President Mahmoud Abbas, might
find it harder to engage in negotiations with Israel amid heightened tensions
and violence.
The killing could also affect the Palestinian public's
perception of both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority. Hamas might gain
increased support among Palestinians who view Haniyeh's death as a heroic
sacrifice, while the Palestinian Authority could be seen as ineffective or
complicit. This shift in public opinion could further complicate efforts to
achieve a unified Palestinian stance in future negotiations.
How the
Incident can be Termed as ‘Killing Many Birds with One Stone’
Hamas has been substantially weakened by killing of
its top leader and probably facing huge challenges in the leadership.
Ismail
Haniyeh has been killed on Iran’s soil, by a bomb planted in the Guest House
months back. This is a direct attack on Iran’s pride. Iran wants to retaliate
but has very limited options and probably proof.
Hezbollah
and Houthi militants who are supported by Iran are finding themselves cornered.
Iran may use them to retaliate but their top leadership is also scared now.
Russia
and China are finding the situation very tricky as the incident has no direct
involvement of Israel. Their standing in West Asia support is going to take a
beating.
USA
finds itself in advantageous situation as it can safely deny its involvement
but can feel very relieved with the outcome.
It
may lead to end of Israel Hamas war and a cease fire or can escalate the
situation which only the time will tell.
Where
is PDEU in this situation?
At
the School of Liberal Studies, PDEU, the department of International Relations
and the other departments as well are engaged actively in open discussion
forums about the current scenario in and around the world. The in-making
diplomats of the nation have got their own perspectives and world views which
give us more open platforms to liberal thoughts, helping the University, the
students, the people of the nation and beyond a better and fair place to
survive.
